West Point Report Warns of Hamas Strategic Shift Toward International Terrorism

A new analysis by counterterrorism expert Dr. Matthew Levitt, which contains exclusive interviews with Israeli officials, focuses on years of covert preparations and thwarted Hamas attacks in Europe

Hamas is breaking decades of operational precedent by pursuing terrorist attacks outside the Middle East, according to a comprehensive analysis released by West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center that details an extensive network of weapons caches, criminal partnerships, and operational infrastructure established across Europe years before the October 7, 2023 attacks.

The report, authored by Dr. Matthew Levitt, a counterterrorism expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, presents evidence that Hamas leadership in Lebanon has directed operatives to establish “foreign operator” cells in at least seven European countries, working with organized crime groups to procure weapons and plan attacks against Jewish and Israeli targets.

“Hamas has never carried out a successful terrorist attack outside of Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza—but not for lack of plotting,” Levitt writes in the analysis published this month. “European and Israeli officials fear that Hamas has taken the decision to go global and carry out plots abroad, marking a significant departure from the group’s prior modus operandi.”

Weapons Buried Across Europe

The report’s most striking revelation involves a multi-year operation to cache weapons across Europe beginning in 2019. According to German court documents cited in the analysis, Hamas operative Ibrahim Elrassatmi traveled to Bulgaria in May 2019 and buried a box containing four handguns, a Kalashnikov rifle, a silencer, and ammunition near the city of Plovdiv—photographing the location and sharing GPS coordinates with Qassam Brigades commanders in Lebanon.

Similar weapons depots were established in Denmark and Poland, with Hamas operatives repeatedly attempting to locate and retrieve these caches starting in June 2023—five months before the October 7 attacks. German prosecutors determined these weapons “were to be made available in order to be able to emphasize the organization’s aims in other European countries, if necessary through attacks.”

Credit: Le Monde

This was contingency planning that became operational, said Levitt in the report, noting that Hamas sent operatives to collect weapons from multiple caches “in the context of preparations for the terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.”

Lebanese Command Structure

The analysis identifies Hamas’ operational headquarters in Lebanon as the nerve center for external operations, with senior commanders directly overseeing European plots. Deputy Qassam Brigades commander Khalil al-Kharraz—killed by Israeli airstrike in November 2023—personally directed the weapons cache operation and maintained “particularly trusting” relationships with operatives in Germany, court documents show.

The Lebanese base, established around 2017 with support from Hezbollah and Iran, represented a deliberate expansion of Hamas capabilities beyond its traditional Gaza stronghold. Deputy secretary general Salah al-Arouri, killed by Israel in January 2024, oversaw the Lebanon operations before his death.

Criminal Alliances and Drone Plots

Levitt describes how Hamas operatives forged partnerships with European organized crime networks to procure weapons and operational support. The Danish case involved members of Loyal to Familia (LtF), a banned street gang, who purchased Chinese DJI quadcopter drones in November 2023 for planned attacks in Denmark or Sweden.

“Recruiting experienced criminals is part of Hamas’ new strategy,” German security officials stated following arrests in October 2025, when three suspects were detained on the eve of Yom Kippur with an AK-47, Glock pistol, and ammunition intended for attacks on Jewish institutions.

The report documents at least three major disrupted plots:

• December 2023 arrests in Germany and Denmark of operatives searching for weapons caches

• May 2025 indictment of LtF gang member for procuring attack drones

• October 2025 arrests of suspects with firearms intended for “assassination attacks”

Credit: Washington Post

Years of Infrastructure Development

German intelligence determined that “Hamas has deliberately established local operators in Europe over the course of many years,” with intercepted communications showing efforts dating to 2020 to obtain European residency permits for operatives arriving from Lebanon.

Court documents reveal Hamas employed operatives at restaurants in Berlin, facilitated immigration applications, and maintained support networks across Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, and Bulgaria. One accused operative, Nazih Rustom, allegedly worked with Dutch charity Al-Israa—designated by the U.S. Treasury as a Hamas front organization in January 2025.

Debate Over Strategic Shift or Tactical Moment

The central contention in Levitt’s analysis is whether these plots represent a permanent strategic pivot or an exceptional response to the Gaza war context. While some Israeli experts view the operations as opportunistic—designed to complement October 7 and pressure Israel during negotiations—others warn that Hamas has fundamentally altered its calculus.

“It remains unclear how decisions about such operations are made and if this includes input and approval from a broad range of Hamas leadership or just a select few,” Levitt writes, noting that decentralized decision-making after leadership losses may enable external operations previously constrained by internal debate.

Israeli intelligence officials quoted in the report assess that “each Hamas boss wants to be the one to save the organization, to exact revenge, to show that Hamas is still standing and relevant and capable”—potentially driving competitive authorization of attacks abroad.

Implications for Counterterrorism

The analysis concludes that law enforcement authorities are taking the threat seriously regardless of whether external operations become permanent Hamas policy. With operational capabilities in Gaza “severely degraded” and the group under pressure in the West Bank, “acts of international terrorism carried out by small cells” may become “a more central component of Hamas’ attack strategy.”

Documents seized by Israeli forces in Gaza reveal even more ambitious plans, including a three-year strategy to establish “many military cells and safe houses in many countries” capable of “sabotage and assassination” of Israeli targets worldwide.

“External operations by Hamas are no longer something we can ignore,” an Israeli intelligence official told Levitt. “It’s a real possibility and something we put more focus on now than ever before.”